The qualitative aspect of this is that the smaller field removes those scary (if you don't pick them) long, long shots from the equation, who seem to sneak in at least a dozen wins on Tour every year. This year's long odds winners include J.B. Holmes, Aaron Baddeley, Chris Couch, John Senden, Corey Pavin, Dean Wilson, Eric Axley, Troy Matteson, and you could throw in at least a handful more. Only one on that list, Wilson, is playing this week. Wilson, 20th on the money list, has played in 33 tournaments this year. While he missed 11 cuts, he had six top-10s in six different months, including the win, the first of his career (at The International) and a T2 at the Valero Texas Open. So you know you've got 30 players who've played well this year. It won't be a surprise, for example, if Adam Scott, who does not have a win in 2006 but has a bag full of seconds and thirds, prevails or if Ben Curtis, who has two wins in 2006, does.
This week's field is actually 27, owing in part to the big news that Tiger Woods won't be trying to extend his winning streak. He says he's tired, and is opting out. I got tired just following his itinerary the last few months. The other two absentees are Phil Mickelson and Stephen Ames.
So, take a short field, make it shorter by three, including Tiger, who would have won it if he played it, figure you have golfers in good form, most of whom have already won on Tour this year (20 of the 27 have), and it all adds up to a fun tournament to handicap. I like the long shots who, as I mentioned above, aren't your typical long shots but some of them come with those kinds of odds. This is a tournament to roll the dice a little bit.
At this week's season-ending Tour Championship outside Atlanta, take Ben Curtis (100-1), 1/6 unit: Curtis won the Booz Allen Classic, his first win since the breakout win at the Open in 2003, and won the 84 Lumber as well. The two years in between were bad. He's missed his last two cuts, but I imagine a little excitement at his first Tour Championship will help. This is no major, but it's the most major tournament since the PGA.
Take Carl Pettersson (80-1), 1/6 unit: Pettersson's missed three cuts in a row, including last week. Not exactly positive momentum. He also missed the cut prior to his win earlier this year at the Memorial.
Take Dean Wilson (80-1), 1/6 unit: Since that T2 in Texas, he's finished T22, T44 and T55. His biggest drawback is that he's way back off the tee. To that end, last week we saw short hitters Paul Goydos and Brian Gay, who are shorter than Wilson off the tee by 10 yards, finish T2 and T9, respectively. East Lake isn't a monster at 7,150 yards. There are only two par-5s, which is where the shorter drivers are hurt more than any other aspect of the game, and one of them is reachable even for the short hitters.
In the head-to-head, take Vijay Singh to finish higher than Chad Campbell (8-13), 1 unit: I think Singh's got the best chance of the favorites. He's playing well lately. Campbell is, too. They've both won at East Lake. I give the edge to the new Hall of Famer.
Last week: Daniel Chopra was my best bet in the outright. He faded Sunday (76) and finished T44. I lost the head-to-head, too. A unit and a half lost brings me to -14.5 units.
About the Author
Jeremy Church is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at www.procappers.com/Jeremy_Church.htm
